Rate Brief — October 2026
Published 2 October 2026 · By Dominique Zuffour
Freight is repricing for Q4. What to lock in before 15 October.
Bunker fuel is up 69% year-on-year. A new wave of carrier surcharges phases in through October, Colombo is still jammed, and Suez trial transits start on 19 October. For anyone moving cargo into Toamasina, the next two weeks decide what the quarter costs. Here is the calendar, the numbers, and the five moves worth making before the 15th.
+69%
VLSFO, year-on-year
US$882 per tonne — the index bunker adjustment factors are built on. HSFO at $749.50, up 64%. As of 30 September 2026.
15 Oct
Maersk PSS takes effect
$250 per 20ft, $500 per 40ft and larger, Far East to South Africa and Mauritius. Madagascar not named — yet.
$500/TEU
CMA CGM Southeast Asia → Madagascar
Peak Season Surcharge in force since 7 April, until further notice. On top of that: $400/TEU from China since 10 August.
20 days
Worst-case vessel delay, Toamasina
Seven-day average wait sits near four days; individual vessels have run to 20. The RN2 landside queue is the bottleneck.
The fuel bill
Bunker costs are the floor under every Q4 rate.
Where the price sits
Seven months of Strait of Hormuz disruption have left the bunker market tight. VLSFO is at US$882 per tonne — up 69% on last year — and HSFO at $749.50, up 64%. Brent is back above $100, and Fujairah bunkers are short. Carriers set bunker adjustment factors against exactly this index, and the fourth-quarter resets are landing now. Whatever your contract says about base freight, the BAF line is moving underneath it.
What it means for your invoice
A bunker reset does not announce itself with a press release. It arrives as a revised surcharge table in a November invoice. Add the peak season surcharges already catalogued below and the pattern is simple: the all-in rate into Toamasina for October departures is higher than September, and the notices that confirm exactly how much higher are still arriving. Treat any quote older than two weeks as stale.
Gulf-origin cargo
Emergency Fuel Surcharges introduced after the Hormuz closure remain active on Gulf-affected routes. On Jebel Ali and Saudi-origin cargo, budget 5–8% above base rates and add three to five days to booking windows — container shortages at Indian inland depots are still restricting confirmations on connecting services.
Why October is different from August
August's surcharge wave was a peak-season story — predictable, seasonal, priced in by now. October is a fourth-quarter reset stacked on top of a live energy shock, with a new Maersk surcharge on the 15th and a Suez trial two weeks later. Three moving parts, two weeks, one decision window. That is what makes this month worth planning rather than reacting.
Surcharge calendar — October 2026
Every notice that touches a Madagascar lane.
Maersk
From 15 Oct
PSS — Far East → South Africa & Mauritius
$250 per 20ft, $500 per 40ft and above, all cargo. Madagascar is not in the notice. Toamasina runs on the same strings as Port Louis and Durban, and on the August precedent — where Tamatave followed regional announcements within weeks — expect a matching notice this month.
CMA CGM
Since 10 Aug
PSS — Far East → Tamatave
$400 per TEU from China, $250 per TEU from other Far East ports, all cargo. Already in your August invoice if you moved boxes on this lane.
CMA CGM
Since 7 Apr
PSS — Southeast Asia → Madagascar
$500 per TEU, dry and reefer, until further notice. The standing charge on Singapore and Malaysia origin strings.
CMA CGM
Announced 2 Oct
New PSS wave — Asia and South America trades
$200–1,000 per TEU across trades, phasing in through October. Madagascar is not on the first list. Watch for a follow-up notice in the coming days.
CMA CGM
From 15 Oct
PSS — China → Dar es Salaam & Mombasa
$550–600 per TEU to Dar, $800 per TEU to Mombasa. A useful yardstick: this is what a China–West Indian Ocean peak surcharge looks like this quarter.
All carriers
Active, Gulf-affected routes
Emergency Fuel Surcharges
Introduced after the Hormuz closure. Budget 5–8% above base on Jebel Ali and Gulf-origin cargo, and expect the fourth-quarter bunker reset to land in your November invoices.
Sources: carrier tariff notices, Container News, AJOT, Lloyd's List. Verified 2 October 2026.
Two-way street
What is pushing rates up — and what could pull them back.
Suez trial — 19 October
Down pressure
The Premier Alliance One Continuity service starts trial transits through Suez on 19 October. If it holds into November, Asia–Europe transit normalises, spot rates come off, and war-risk and contingency surcharges start unwinding. It does nothing for cargo already booked for October.
Colombo congestion
Up pressure
Transhipment is 82% of Colombo's throughput, yard density is running around 130%, and vessels wait two to three days at anchor. The China and Nhava Sheva strings that feed Toamasina run through it — connecting legs are slipping three to five days.
Asia–Europe spot rates
Easing
Spot rates have been coming off the summer peak. Europe-bound cargo feels it first. Indian Ocean strings pick up the relief a quarter later, if at all.
China–India rates
Doubled
Shanghai to JNPA is roughly $3,700 per TEU. India-origin cargo connecting to Toamasina through Nhava Sheva is paying about double pre-Hormuz levels.
Landed cost
What to carry per box until the notices settle.
For October bookings on Far East lanes into Toamasina, carry roughly 10% above your September all-in as a planning buffer. Two line items decide whether that number is generous or thin: the fourth-quarter bunker reset, and whether Maersk's 15 October peak season surcharge gets a Madagascar notice. A US$500 per FEU PSS plus a BAF increase can erase that buffer in one invoice.
The rest of the stack has not got cheaper. Terminal handling at MICTSL, inland haulage on the RN2 with its current landside queue, customs storage during the four-day average vessel wait — and demurrage if the delay stretches past free time. Re-run the full calculation before you commit a price to your buyer. Freight is the volatile line, but it is rarely the only one that moved.
Before the 15th
Five moves, two weeks.
1
Fix your Q4 rates this week, not next month
Every notice in the calendar above either has taken effect or lands by 15 October. If you have cargo departing Far East, India, or the Gulf before November, get the all-in rate confirmed in writing now — base freight, PSS, bunker adjustment, the lot. Our team prices the full stack per lane; start with the shipping-costs breakdown and we will match it against your current booking.
2
Demand the surcharge schedule in writing
The base rate stopped being the real rate months ago. Ask your forwarder or carrier for the complete surcharge list for your lane — peak season, bunker, war risk, security, terminal handling — and compare it line by line against what you paid in August. A quote without the surcharge schedule is not a quote.
3
Re-run your landed cost before you quote your buyer
Freight is one line in the landed cost, and the October moves change it. Duty, TVA, port charges, inland transport on the RN2, and demurrage exposure from current vessel delays all sit behind the freight number. Recalculate before you commit a price to your buyer — the calculators take minutes.
4
Book earlier, and take the direct string where it exists
Add three to five days to your booking window on anything transhipped through Colombo or Indian hubs. Where a direct rotation exists — PIL's Durban–Tamatave and the Singapore loop among them — price both options. A cheaper base rate through a jammed hub often costs more once the connecting-leg delay is priced in.
5
Keep contracts short-cycle into the new year
The Suez trial on 19 October is the first real downward catalyst since the Hormuz closure. If it holds, surcharges start coming off by November and December. Locking a twelve-month rate at today's peak means paying for a crisis that may be ending. Quarterly agreements, with a surcharge-review clause, are the sane structure for Q4.
Questions we get
Q4 rates — FAQ.
- Are shipping rates to Madagascar going up in Q4 2026?
- Yes — the direction is up for October bookings. Bunker fuel is running 69% above last year, which feeds the fourth-quarter bunker adjustment factors carriers are resetting now. CMA CGM peak season surcharges have been live on Toamasina lanes since April and August, and Maersk adds a new peak season surcharge on 15 October. The only credible downward pressure is the Suez trial transits starting 19 October, and that lands too late to help October cargo. Until the notices are in hand, carry roughly 10% above your September all-in on Far East lanes.
- What is the Maersk surcharge effective 15 October 2026?
- A peak season surcharge from the Far East to South Africa and Mauritius: US$250 per 20ft and US$500 per 40ft and larger, all cargo. Madagascar is not named in the notice. Toamasina sits on the same Indian Ocean strings as Port Louis and Durban, and on the August precedent — where Tamatave followed regional announcements within weeks — a matching notice should be expected this month. Ask your forwarder to confirm in writing whether your booking is captured.
- Does the CMA CGM peak season surcharge apply to Toamasina?
- Yes, two of them. From 10 August: US$400 per TEU for cargo originating in China and US$250 per TEU from other Far East ports, both to Tamatave. From 7 April and still in force: US$500 per TEU from Southeast Asia to Madagascar, dry and reefer. Origin port determines which applies — China and Singapore origin are priced separately, so check the exact origin range on your booking confirmation.
- Will the Suez reopening bring rates back down?
- Trial transits through Suez begin on 19 October under the Premier Alliance One Continuity service. If the trials hold through November, expect Asia–Europe transit times to normalise, spot rates to ease, and war-risk and contingency surcharges to unwind — Indian Ocean lanes would follow with a four-to-eight week lag. October bookings will not see any of it. The practical call: keep contracts short-cycle into the new year rather than locking twelve-month rates at today's peak.
- How much extra should I budget per container to Toamasina?
- On Far East lanes, carry about 10% above your September all-in until the October notices are confirmed. The two line items that decide it are the fourth-quarter bunker reset (VLSFO at US$882 per tonne) and a possible US$250–500 per TEU Maersk peak season surcharge if Madagascar is named. Gulf-origin cargo carries a 5–8% premium over base rates plus 3–5 extra days on booking lead time. The duty calculator and the shipping-costs pages on ekutano.com model the current stack per lane.
October cargo booked yet? We will price the whole stack before you commit.
We track carrier notices the day they are issued — peak season, bunker, war risk, terminal handling. Send your lane, container type, and departure window. You get the all-in rate, the surcharge list in writing, and the booking deadline that actually matters.