Disruption Brief — August 2026
Published 12 August 2026 · By Dominique Zuffour
The Indian Ocean is broken. Here's what Madagascar importers need to do about it.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — now into its sixth month — has triggered 96,000+ route diversions, added 10+ days to Far East–Europe transit, and pushed Indian west-coast port dwell times to record levels. Red Sea attacks via Iranian proxies have extended the disruption to Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi ports, and Egypt. Madagascar is not on the frontline, but the transhipment hubs that connect Toamasina to global shipping networks — Colombo, Singapore, Indian ports — are running above baseline. Carrier surcharges are stacking. Booking windows are tightening. Here is the operator-grade picture for anyone moving cargo through Madagascar right now.
96,200+
Route diversions recorded
In 16 weeks since the Strait of Hormuz closure. Three distinct waves: acute (weeks 1–5), volatile mid-period (weeks 6–13), and secondary elevation (weeks 14–15).
10+ days
Added to Far East–Europe transit
Cape of Good Hope rerouting vs Suez. Carriers have structurally integrated the southern route into some service designs.
23 days
Navi Mumbai import dwell
Up from 4.9 days pre-crisis. The most severely impacted port — 16 consecutive weeks of rising dwell with no plateau.
$9,400/FEU
Asia–US East Coast rate
Record high as of early August 2026. Transpacific rates have remained unexpectedly strong despite early peak-season expectations.
Port impact
Where the congestion is — and what it means for Toamasina.
Colombo
Sri Lanka
Congested — transhipment overload
Liner connectivity index (LSCI) of 737 — the closest substitute for Jebel Ali's 791. But record throughput and yard congestion are straining capacity. Connecting services to Toamasina via Colombo are experiencing delays.
→ Madagascar impact: Madagascar: 3–5 day delay on connecting services via Colombo hub.
Navi Mumbai
India
Critical — dwell accelerating
Import dwell rose every single week for 16 consecutive weeks, from 4.9 to 19.9 days. Transhipment volumes surged 700%+ as carriers rerouted Jebel Ali overflow. Container shortages at inland depots.
→ Madagascar impact: Madagascar: India-origin cargo (Nhava Sheva, Mundra) facing booking restrictions and delays.
Singapore
Singapore
Elevated — transhipment pressure
Import dwell up 218% from pre-conflict baseline (2.9 to 9.2 days). Transhipment cargo displaced from the Gulf is accumulating. Operational flexibility prevents Navi Mumbai-level deterioration but sustained above baseline.
→ Madagascar impact: Madagascar: PIL's new IOX service via Singapore offers an alternative, but Singapore congestion adds 2–3 days.
Salalah
Oman
Recovering — peaked at 36.6 days
Spiked to 36.6 days in week 5 as the closest large-capacity alternative to the Strait. Has declined steadily since, reaching 17.5 days by week 16. Better infrastructure absorbed the surge.
→ Madagascar impact: Madagascar: Minimal direct impact. Salalah is not a primary transhipment point for Toamasina services.
Carrier responses
How carriers are adapting — and what it costs you.
CMA CGM
PSS + capacity management
Peak Season Surcharges from Far East to Tamatave ($400/TEU China, $250/TEU other Far East, effective 10 Aug). Emergency Fuel Surcharges on Hormuz-affected routes. Increased blank sailings for August on Asia–Europe.
MSC
Network restructuring
Reducing direct-service options on some routings, altering transit times. Releasing only a fraction of requested bookings on India–Europe services. Last-minute cargo difficult to place.
PIL
New IOX service
Launched Indian Ocean Express (IOX) on 6 August: Singapore–Port Louis–Reunion–Tamatave–Singapore. Also restructured Mozambique service into MZ1/MZ2 loops for improved reliability.
Maersk
Contingency routing
Reduced or withdrawn insurance cover for some shipments into affected areas. Contingency routing and surcharges still in place as of Q2 2026.
Rate snapshot — August 2026
Global ocean rates at a glance.
Asia–US West Coast
Climbing +11% w/w
$7,400/FEU
Asia–US East Coast
Record high, +1% w/w
$9,400/FEU
Asia–North Europe
Easing from July peak (−8% w/w)
$5,000/FEU
Asia–Mediterranean
Easing (−7% w/w)
$6,000/FEU
Drewry WCI Composite
+1% rebound after 3 weeks decline
$4,297/FEU
Source: Freightos Baltic Index, Drewry WCI, Xeneta. Rates as of early August 2026.
What to do now
Five actions for Madagascar importers.
1
Extend booking lead times by 3–5 days
Container shortages, transhipment congestion, and blank sailings mean the space you booked two weeks ago may not be available next week. For any cargo originating from the Gulf, Indian subcontinent, or Far East transhipped via Indian Ocean hubs, book 2–3 weeks before departure.
2
Budget 5–10% above base rates on affected lanes
PSS, Emergency Fuel Surcharges, war-risk premiums, and longer transit times are stacking. Model the full surcharge stack per lane before quoting landed cost to your buyer. The base rate is no longer the real rate.
3
Prefer direct services over transhipment where available
PIL's Durban–Tamatave direct (5–7 days) is not affected by the Hormuz disruption. For Far East origin cargo, PIL's new IOX via Singapore offers an alternative to Colombo. Where possible, choose routings that minimise transhipment hops through congested hubs.
4
Review insurance cover for high-value cargo
Some carriers have reduced or withdrawn war-risk insurance cover for shipments into affected areas. Confirm insurance status with your carrier and broker before booking — especially for pharma, electronics, and high-value commodity shipments.
5
Build safety stock on critical imports
With lead times extended by 10+ days on some corridors and transit predictability degraded, maintain higher safety stock on critical inputs. The cost of buffer inventory is lower than the cost of a stockout caused by a delayed vessel.
Questions we get
Indian Ocean disruption — FAQ.
- Is the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted?
- Yes. As of August 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains under selective blockade. Iran has escalated demands — including a ban on US vessels, transit fees, and reparations — in exchange for reopening. Some carriers have resumed limited Red Sea transits, but attacks via Iranian proxies have extended to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi ports, and Egypt. The situation is not stabilising.
- How does the Hormuz disruption affect Madagascar shipping?
- Madagascar is not directly on the Hormuz route, but transhipment hubs that connect Toamasina to global networks — Colombo, Singapore, Indian west-coast ports — are running above baseline dwell times. Navi Mumbai import dwell hit 23 days (vs 4.9 pre-crisis). This creates delays on connecting services, container shortages, and carrier capacity constraints that cascade to Madagascar.
- What surcharges should Madagascar importers expect?
- CMA CGM has introduced Peak Season Surcharges from Far East to Tamatave (US$400/TEU from China, US$250/TEU from other Far East, effective 10 August 2026). Emergency Fuel Surcharges apply on Hormuz-affected routes. Marine insurance war-risk premiums have increased 0.5–1% of vessel value. Budget 5–10% above base rates on Gulf and India-origin cargo.
- Should I change my shipping routes to Madagascar?
- The Durban–Toamasina corridor (5–7 days via PIL direct) is not affected by the Hormuz disruption and remains the fastest sea route into Madagascar. For Far East origin cargo, consider PIL's new Indian Ocean Express (IOX) via Singapore, which may bypass some Colombo congestion. Book 2–3 weeks earlier than usual on any lane affected by transhipment delays.
- How long will the disruption last?
- There is no clear timeline for normalisation. Sixteen weeks into the disruption (as of June 2026), 96,000+ route diversions had been recorded and congestion at Indian ports was still accelerating. Some carriers have structurally integrated the Cape of Good Hope routing into their service designs. The consensus view is that disruption-related surcharges and scheduling variability will persist through at least Q4 2026.
Navigating disrupted lanes into Madagascar? Let us map the realistic options.
We track carrier schedules, surcharge announcements, and transhipment hub conditions in real time. Send your origin, cargo type, and timing and we'll come back with the best routing, the real transit time, and the cost stack you should budget for.